UK jobs and wages data due at 7am: figures to watch

The Office for National Statistics is scheduled to publish its latest UK labour-market data at 07:00 on 18 August 2026. Workers, jobseekers and employers should watch whether wages are still outpacing inflation, unemployment is rising or falling and demand for new staff is strengthening.

By the GlobeBids Economy Desk — 18 August 2026

The ONS release announcement confirms the timing and subjects covered but does not contain the new estimates. Until the August bulletin appears, the July figures remain the latest verified baseline.

The five figures to compare at 7am

The August release is expected to provide updated estimates for:

• The employment rate and the number of people in work.
• The unemployment rate and estimated number of unemployed people.
• Economic inactivity among people neither working nor seeking work.
• Regular and total average weekly earnings, before and after inflation.
• The estimated number of vacancies across the economy.

The direction matters, but so do the reference periods and revisions. Labour Force Survey figures commonly describe rolling three-month periods, while vacancies use a separate three-month window. PAYE Real Time Information estimates can cover more recent months, although the newest PAYE figures should be identified as provisional.

July’s baseline showed wages narrowly beating inflation

The ONS July labour-market bulletin estimated a 75.1% employment rate, 4.9% unemployment and 20.9% economic inactivity for March to May 2026.

Regular earnings, which exclude bonuses, grew by 3.4% year on year. Total earnings, including bonuses, increased by 4.3%. After adjustment for the Consumer Prices Index, regular pay grew by only 0.4%, while total pay rose by 1.3%.

That distinction is important for households. Nominal wage growth measures the change in cash pay; inflation-adjusted growth indicates whether that pay buys more goods and services. Total earnings can also be affected by volatile bonus payments, so regular pay usually gives a steadier view of underlying wage pressure.

The August figures will show whether this modest improvement in purchasing power continued. A higher nominal pay figure would not automatically mean households are better off if consumer prices accelerated at the same time.

Vacancies will reveal whether hiring demand is changing

Vacancies were provisionally estimated at 712,000 for April to June 2026. The new estimate will help show whether employers are creating more openings or continuing to reduce recruitment.

For jobseekers, a rise in vacancies could indicate a broader choice of roles, although the national total cannot show whether openings match an individual’s occupation, skills or location. A decline would suggest softer hiring demand, but it would not prove that every industry is cutting recruitment.

Employers should compare vacancies with unemployment and wage growth. Falling vacancies alongside rising unemployment would point towards a looser labour market. Strong vacancies and faster regular pay growth could instead indicate that recruitment difficulties remain in parts of the economy.

What the release could mean for households and workplaces

Workers should focus on real regular pay rather than the largest earnings number alone. If inflation-adjusted regular earnings remain positive, average purchasing power is still increasing, although individual experiences will differ by sector, hours worked and pay arrangements.

Jobseekers should read the unemployment and vacancy estimates together. An unemployment increase may mean more competition for available roles, while the vacancy trend offers a clearer indication of employers’ immediate appetite to hire.

Businesses will be looking for evidence about labour availability and wage pressure. The data may help with recruitment and payroll planning, but a single national release cannot describe conditions in every industry or region.

Short-term movements need careful interpretation

The ONS warns that short-term Labour Force Survey movements can be volatile. Changes should therefore be assessed alongside longer-term trends, survey uncertainty and revisions rather than treated as proof of a sudden turning point.

Percentages and percentage-point changes must also be kept separate. For example, a hypothetical movement in unemployment from 4.9% to 5.0% would be an increase of 0.1 percentage point, not 0.1%.

The decisive next check is the August ONS bulletin: its exact estimates, reference periods, revisions and provisional labels will determine whether pay is gaining on prices and whether the UK labour market is becoming easier or harder to navigate.

Source: Office for National Statistics via GOV.UK