UK inflation: Will July CPI rise in the 19 August update?

By the GlobeBids Economy Desk | 18 August 2026

The Office for National Statistics is scheduled to publish its July 2026 inflation figures on 19 August 2026, putting household budgets one day away from a fresh test of price pressure. The central question is whether the Consumer Prices Index 12-month rate for July will be higher than the June rate reported in the same release. Until those figures appear, a rise cannot be assumed.

The July CPI forecast at a glance

• Question: Will the July 2026 CPI 12-month rate exceed June’s rate?
• Deadline: 19 August 2026, before the scheduled ONS update determines the outcome.
• YES: July’s initially published CPI annual rate is strictly higher than June’s cited rate.
• NO: July’s initially published rate is equal to or lower than June’s cited rate.
• Deciding publication: The ONS July 2026 inflation release.

This is a comparison between two annual rates in one official publication. It is not a forecast of a particular percentage, and monthly price changes alone cannot settle it.

Why the direction of inflation matters for household budgets

A higher annual CPI rate would indicate that the overall price level covered by the index increased more quickly over the 12 months to July than it did over the 12 months to June. That would not mean every product became more expensive in July, but it could reinforce pressure on household purchasing power.

Purchasing power depends on the relationship between income growth and prices. If pay or benefit income rises more slowly than the cost of a household’s typical purchases, that household can afford less in real terms. The effect varies because spending patterns differ: food, rent, energy, transport and childcare can occupy very different shares of two families’ budgets.

A NO result would not necessarily mean prices fell. If the annual CPI rate is unchanged, prices could still be higher than a year earlier at the same pace. If the rate declines but remains positive, prices are still rising overall, only more slowly on the annual measure.

The distinction is important for budgeting. Falling inflation is not the same as falling prices, while one month’s higher annual rate does not by itself establish a lasting acceleration.

CPI, CPIH and RPI measure different things

The ONS inflation bulletin reports several measures, including CPI, CPIH and the Retail Prices Index. They should not be treated as interchangeable.

CPI tracks changes in the prices of a representative basket of consumer goods and services. The market resolves only on its 12-month rate, comparing July 2026 with July 2025.

CPIH, or the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs, is broader. It incorporates an estimate of the housing services consumed by owner-occupiers, as well as council tax. Its annual rate can therefore differ from CPI even when both respond to many of the same price movements.

RPI is an older measure with a different population coverage and formula. It remains used in some contracts and index-linked arrangements, but an RPI increase or decrease cannot decide this forecast.

Readers should first locate the CPI 12-month rate in the new bulletin. CPIH and RPI can add context about housing and other costs, but neither substitutes for the specified settlement figure.

Monthly prices and annual inflation can tell different stories

The annual CPI rate answers how much the index changed between July 2025 and July 2026. The monthly rate answers how much it changed between June and July 2026. Both matter, but they address different periods.

An annual rate can rise even when the latest monthly increase appears modest. This can happen because the July 2025 movement drops out of the 12-month comparison and is replaced by the July 2026 movement, an effect commonly called a base effect. Conversely, a noticeable monthly increase does not guarantee that the annual rate will rise if the comparable movement a year earlier was larger.

For a complete reading of the update, compare:

• July’s CPI 12-month rate with the June rate cited by the ONS;
• the June-to-July 2026 monthly change with the June-to-July 2025 change;
• CPI with CPIH, while preserving the distinction between the measures;
• headline inflation with the category contributions reported in the bulletin.

This avoids drawing an annual conclusion from a single monthly figure.

Category contributions will show where the movement came from

The headline rate compresses many prices into one number. The ONS bulletin also explains which expenditure categories made the largest upward and downward contributions to the change in inflation.

Major divisions to examine include food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; transport; restaurants and hotels; recreation and culture; clothing and footwear; and household goods and services. No category can be named as July’s main driver before the data are published.

The fastest-rising category is not automatically the largest contributor. A category’s effect also depends on its weight in the representative basket and the detailed price changes within it. A widely purchased category with a moderate movement can influence the headline rate more than a narrow category with a sharper increase.

The useful post-release test is therefore to identify both the largest positive contribution and the largest negative contribution. Those figures will reveal whether any change was broad-based or concentrated in a smaller set of household expenses.

A higher rate could shape wages, savings and borrowing expectations

A YES result could become a reference point in wage negotiations. Employees and unions may argue that stronger price pressure requires higher nominal pay to protect living standards, while employers may focus on productivity, affordability and whether the rise appears temporary. One CPI release cannot determine an appropriate settlement for every workplace.

Savings should be assessed in real as well as nominal terms. An account can pay interest while still losing purchasing power if its after-tax return is below inflation. A higher CPI rate could widen that shortfall for some savers, although the outcome depends on the rate paid, tax treatment and the period being compared.

Borrowers may see the update influence expectations for future interest-rate decisions. A renewed rise could make an early reduction in rates appear less likely if it is accompanied by persistent underlying pressure. An equal or lower reading could ease some concern, but policymakers consider wages, services prices, economic activity and other evidence alongside headline CPI.

Changes in expectations can affect newly offered fixed mortgage and savings rates before any official interest-rate decision. Existing fixed-rate borrowers and savers would usually see no immediate contractual change, while variable-rate products may respond differently.

The first ONS release provides the final settlement

The result will use the figures initially published in the ONS bulletin on 19 August. Later corrections or revisions will not reopen the outcome.

YES resolves only if the July 2026 CPI 12-month rate is numerically higher than the June 2026 rate cited in that first release. NO resolves if July is identical to June or lower. Rounding must be respected: the comparison uses the published rates, not an attempt to reconstruct unrounded values.

If publication is delayed, the question remains unresolved until the scheduled release becomes publicly available. Commentary, analyst estimates, news reports and alternative inflation measures cannot determine the result.

What households should check on 19 August

The first number to check is the CPI annual rate, followed by the June comparator printed in the same bulletin. The monthly CPI movement and the ONS category-contribution analysis will then show how the result emerged.

Households can use the release as a broad economic signal, but personal budgets require a more specific comparison. Reviewing recent changes in essential spending, wage growth, savings returns and upcoming mortgage or rent commitments will provide a clearer picture than the headline rate alone.

Source: Office for National Statistics